Current Trends Point to a China-U.S. GDP Match in 2038 (2021 data)

As of 2021, China’s GDP per capita is only $12,539 vs. US’ $69,231, about 1/6 of the US GDP per capita. China’s GDP per capita in 2021 is about US’ level in 1980, or 41-years behind. Based on the growth trends during the past 17 years, it will take China until 2073 to reach the US level, or about 52 years later. See the growth forecast in the Chart below

GDP per cap Growth Forecast China vs. US
GDP per cap Growth Forecast China vs. US

China’s total GDP in 2021 is $17,700 bil., vs. US’ $22,990 bil., or about the US level in 2014. China is 7 years behind the US. Based on the current GDP growth of both countries since 2005, China will catch the US in about 2038, or 16 years from 2022. All dollar figures are based on current value. See the forecast growth trends in the chart below.

GDP Growth Forecast China vs. US
GDP Growth Forecast China vs. US

Of course, the forecasts assume the future world economic outlook, trade, and the two countries’ social conditions for the years to come to stay comparable in the years between 2005-2021, and between 1980-2021 for the per-cap GDP. Disruptive events are very likely given the frightful dynamic shift many developed countries worked hard to stop. Nevertheless, the general demand from developing countries for better living standards will drive world growth in the long run. China as one of the poor developing countries will enjoy abundant catch-up work for the next three hundred years.

(Data are compiled by Researchnology Economic Research©. Researchnology Co. will update these forecasts annually)

Author: ResearchTech

Research scientist interested in improving discovery productivity through better research method and organization design.

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