Current Trends Point to a China-U.S. GDP Match in 2041 (2022 data)

As of 2022, China’s GDP per capita is $12,814 vs. the US $76,348.49, or only about 1/6 of the US value. China’s GDP per capita in 2022 is about US’ level in 1981, or 41 years behind. Based on the growth trends during the past 18 years, it will take China until 2078 to reach the US level, or about 55 years from now. See the growth forecast in the Chart below

China’s total GDP in 2022 is $18,100 bil., vs. US’ $25,460 bil., or about the US level in 2015. China is 7 years behind the US. Based on the current GDP growth of both countries since 2005, China will catch the US in about 2041, or 19 years from 2022. All dollar figures are based on current value. See the forecast growth trends in the chart below.

Of course, the forecasts assume the future world economic outlook, trade, and the two countries’ social conditions for the years to come to stay relatively comparable in the years between 2005-2022, and between 1980-2022 for the per-cap GDP forecast. Disruptive geo-political events are likely to invalidate the forecasts in either direction in short term, as many developed countries worked hard to stop the frightful world power shift. Nevertheless, the general demand for better living standards from the vast number of developing countries will ultimately drive world growth in the long run. China as one of the poor developing countries equipped with outstanding learning skills will enjoy abundant catch-up work, by gradually improving their production means. The per-capita economic gap China posts with the US may not mend soon, and it is exactly what will drive the race between China and US for hundreds of years to come.

(Data are compiled by Researchnology Economic Research©. Researchnology Co. will update these forecasts annually)

美国政府农业统计-US Agricultural Statistics

美国联邦政府农业部下属的农业统计局(NASS),每年发布农业统计数据,以满足农户、企业和投资人对农业生产、供应、消费、设施、成本和回报的多样化的信息需求。农业统计的年度数据形式涵盖了广泛,信息处理手段丰富,发布及时,是农业生产决策者、投资届,农户们最可靠的参考书。因为包括大量详尽的预测数据,广大农户在选择种植和养殖的品种上得到了指导。统计调查工作最直接的影响是稳定了农户收入,降低了投资的风险。 美国农业部对农作物、牲畜和家禽的估测,提供及时的当前、各州和全国的总量和平均值。农业统计是基于对农民和与农民做生意的人的抽样调查获得的数据,调查数据每五年会通过农业普查信息得到补充。随着数据通过商业或政府来源,已出版的数据也可能会进行修订。除非另有说明,各种表格中关于面积、产量、数量、价格、价值、供应和处置的美国总数均基于农业部的官方估计。它们不包括没有编制官方估计的州。

农业统计局收集、汇总、分析和发布美国农牧业方面的数据。为了适应快速变化的农业,其采用最先进的计算机、遥感技术并结合新的统计方法,定期地为政府政策制定者、农户、与农业相关的企业和金融投资者提供广泛的统计数据。其主要的数据收集工作包括:

  • 每年进行400 多次每周、每月、每季度或每年的调查。
  • 每五年进行一次农业普查——美国农场和牧场的完整统计。
  • 对调查设计、抽样和其他前沿统计问题进行持续研究。

其数据和报告产品涵盖的范围广泛,主要领域包括但不限于:

  • 农作物生产规模和库存
  • 农场劳动力规模、劳动力工资、个人和家庭收入和财务状况
  • 农业生产中使用的化学品的种类和数量
  • 特定作物的长势、牲畜库存和未来走势,农村发展状况
  • 农业产业,如面粉加工、乙醇、棉花和油脂,的现状

(待续)