Dawn of the Battle Against 2019-nCoV Emerges

With the latest confirmed 2019-nCoV infections on Feb. 7, 2020, the time when new confirmed cases will stop emerging. As indicated in the forecast shown below based on a simple order-6 polynomial model on confirmed cases using data since official data release December 29, 2019.

The significance of this prediction potentially confirms the actual virus incubation period among humans. Most experts have estimated it to be somewhere between 12-15 days. If the Feb. 10 or a few days after turns out to be the date no more significant new confirmed cases, then this estimate is then reasonable, as China started sealing off Wuhan then cutting off essentially all people-to-people form of transfers 17 days prior to the estimated Feb. 10. It also supports the fact no new form of the virus is causing similar infections.

Author: ResearchTech

Research scientist interested in improving discovery productivity through better research method and organization design.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.

I accept that my given data and my IP address is sent to a server in the USA only for the purpose of spam prevention through the Akismet program.More information on Akismet and GDPR.