Logistic Growth Curve Forecasts a Receding Trend of Confirmed Cases and a Total Stabilization around 50,000 near February 20th

The pattern is getting clearer. With my 3-parameter logistic growth model fits as of February 10, 2020, the total confirmed cases will stabilize around 50,000 cases. The model came with a 0.9994 R-square.

Such a near-perfect model-fitting with 27 data points is not surprising. China’s enormous national effort to collect the patient data enables results in high-quality data, which approximates very closely many natural growth patterns.

Author: ResearchTech

Research scientist interested in improving discovery productivity through better research method and organization design.

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